Prelude to the Current Crisis

The Syrian battlefield has long been a stage for proxy wars. Following a series of ceasefire agreements and territorial allocations under the 2020 Putin-Erdogan Accord, it seemed that a semblance of stability was on the horizon. However, escalating tensions between key players, including Turkey, Iran, and Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, have reignited violence.

Recent clashes between Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Syrian forces near Aleppo highlight the fragile nature of these accords. HTS’s renewed offensive, supported by Turkish artillery, is a bold move aimed at reclaiming lost territories under the guise of “liberation.” However, the deeper motivations appear to involve advancing Turkish influence in northern Syria.

Strategic Maneuvers in Aleppo

The HTS assault was not an impulsive act. Months of preparation preceded the attack, with weapons stockpiled and militants trained near Aleppo’s outskirts. The initial trigger? An assassination of an Iranian commander in Aleppo. Conflicting reports attribute the killing to either HTS artillery or a suicide bomber within a Syrian military meeting—a calculated provocation that led to widespread chaos.

This act effectively set the stage for HTS’s forces to push into Syrian-held areas. Despite preemptive artillery strikes by Assad's forces aimed at disrupting these plans, HTS succeeded in advancing. In just 36 hours, they reportedly gained control of 250 square kilometers of territory, marking one of the most significant advances in the conflict’s recent history.

Key Players and Their Motivations

• Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda, HTS has evolved into a formidable militant organization controlling parts of northern Syria. While it claims to represent Syrian interests, its operations align closely with Turkish objectives.
• Turkey: Supporting HTS allows Turkey to exert control over Syria’s northern regions without direct military confrontation. By enabling proxy forces, Turkey avoids the political and military costs of full-scale intervention while safeguarding its borders and regional influence.
• Iran: A staunch ally of Assad, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have played a crucial role in defending key Syrian territories. However, their involvement has drawn significant hostility, particularly after the killing of high-ranking Iranian commanders, which symbolizes the vulnerability of their presence.
• Assad's Regime: For Bashar Al-Assad, holding Aleppo is both a strategic and symbolic priority. Losing control undermines his claims of sovereignty and exposes cracks in his alliances with Russia and Iran.
• Russia: While a critical ally of Assad, Russia’s attention is divided due to its ongoing involvement in Ukraine. Its reduced military operations in Syria have emboldened other actors, leaving Assad’s regime increasingly isolated.

Behind the Headlines: The Role of International Politics

This conflict is not just about territorial gains but also about larger geopolitical ambitions:

• Turkey seeks to formalize its influence over northern Syria, securing areas as a buffer against Kurdish forces and other perceived threats.
• Iran aims to maintain its strategic foothold in Syria, which is vital for its broader regional ambitions and its ability to counter Israeli and U.S. interests.
• Israel, leveraging the distraction of the Syrian conflict, has intensified strikes on Iranian targets in southern Syria and Lebanon, weakening Iran’s position.

The Human Cost

While these power struggles dominate the headlines, the Syrian population continues to bear the brunt of the conflict. Displaced families, devastated infrastructure, and an economy in ruins reflect the heavy toll of prolonged warfare. Claims of liberation by HTS ring hollow as many areas under their control report continued repression and violence.