Trump's reelection unsettles Europe as his aggressive stance pushes the EU toward reconsidering Russian gas imports. Explore the geopolitical and energy consequences.
Europe’s Energy Dilemma Returns as Trump Shifts U.S. Foreign Policy
The European Union is entering one of its most uncertain phases in decades following the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. Trump's renewed presence in the White House and the combative stance of his administration toward both Europe and Ukraine are raising serious concerns across the continent. Many European leaders now find themselves questioning whether Russia or an unpredictable America under Trump poses the greater threat.
During the Biden administration, the U.S. had been a staunch ally of Europe in its confrontation with Moscow, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. One of Washington’s most strategic moves was helping Europe reduce its dependence on Russian energy by ramping up liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. This effort was vital during the energy crisis of 2022–2023, as the EU scrambled to replace Russian pipeline gas.
Now, with Trump back in office and taking a confrontational approach to Europe—including threats of steep tariffs and reduced NATO commitments—European leaders are reconsidering previously unthinkable scenarios, including a return to Russian gas.
The End of an Era in Russian Gas Supplies
The shift began at the start of 2025, when Russian energy giant Gazprom halted gas deliveries through pipelines transiting Ukrainian territory, after Kyiv refused to renew a transit agreement that expired in December 2024. This marked the end of a decades-long era in which Russia dominated Europe’s energy supply.
Before the Ukraine war, Russian gas reached Europe through four main routes:
- Yamal-Europe pipeline, via Belarus and Poland to Germany – shut down in May 2022 by Poland.
- Nord Stream 1, under the Baltic Sea to Germany – disabled after the September 2022 explosions.
- Transit pipelines through Ukraine, now inactive after the transit deal ended.
- TurkStream, currently the only active route, supplying southern and central European countries like Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria.
While Europe has made substantial progress in weaning itself off Russian energy, Trump’s return is challenging this new reality.
A New U.S. Administration, a New Crisis
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric toward NATO and the EU—calling members “freeloaders” and suggesting he might not defend those who don’t pay—has sent shockwaves through European capitals. His threats to impose a 20% tariff on European imports have added economic tension to the geopolitical anxiety.
In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed an ambitious tariff-free trade deal: zero tariffs from both sides. Trump rejected the idea, instead suggesting that Europe should purchase $350 billion worth of U.S. energy to make up the trade deficit—a figure seen by many as unrealistic.
Even more troubling is that while Trump demands Europe buy more U.S. LNG, his administration appears open to allowing Russia back into the European energy market. Reports have surfaced of U.S.-Russia talks about restarting gas flows through Nord Stream pipelines—a move that contradicts both U.S. economic interests and its geopolitical stance against Moscow.
Is the U.S. Undermining Its Own LNG Industry?
In April 2025, Politico reported that the White House is considering lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2, the controversial pipeline built to double Russian gas exports to Germany. Though never operational, one of its two lines remains intact after the 2022 sabotage. If restarted, it could funnel tens of billions of dollars into Russia's economy—money that could help sustain its war in Ukraine.
This development has baffled analysts. If Europe resumes Russian gas imports, U.S. LNG will lose market share, and American geopolitical leverage will diminish. Trump's policy appears to benefit Russia more than the U.S., Ukraine, or Europe.
European Energy Security in Question
As Washington’s reliability wavers, some European voices are calling for a reassessment of energy policy. Tatiana Mitrova, a senior researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told Reuters that U.S. LNG is no longer seen as a politically neutral commodity. “It’s becoming a geopolitical tool,” she said.
A senior EU diplomat echoed this sentiment, suggesting that America’s gas exports could be weaponized in the future, just like Russia’s were in the past.
This has sparked internal debate within the EU. In Germany, members of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party of incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz, are openly discussing the possibility of restarting gas imports from Russia via Nord Stream 2. Germany was the most dependent on Russian gas before the war, and its economy has been among the hardest hit by soaring energy prices.
If Germany leans toward reopening gas ties with Russia, it could drive a wedge within the EU—between those willing to reengage with Moscow for economic relief and those committed to maintaining sanctions.
A New Energy Cold War?
The return of Russian gas to Europe, once considered unthinkable, is now back on the table. This shift stems not from a change in Moscow’s behavior, but from fears that America is no longer a dependable partner. As one diplomat put it, the choice may now be between two unreliable suppliers: an aggressive Russia or an erratic U.S.
What happens next could reshape not only Europe’s energy future, but the entire balance of power between East and West.